假设预期实际利率在美国为每年9%,在欧洲为每年3%。请问在下一年度,美元/欧元汇率将如何变化?
Suppose that the expected real interest rate in the United States is 9 percent per year while that in Europe is 3 percent per year.What do you expect to happen to the real dollar/euro exchange rate over the next year?
用实际利率平价关系计算美国与日本20世纪70—80年代晚期实际利率的差异。(假设实际的通货膨胀率等于预期的通货膨胀率,人们准确预期到实际汇率的变动。)
年份 | 美国 | 日本 | 美元/ 日元 | 美元/日元 | 实际利率差异 |
CPI | CPI | 实际汇率 | |||
1977 | 73.6 | 81.2 | 0.0037 | ______ | ______ |
1978 | 79.2 | 79.1 | 0.0048 | ______ | ______ |
1979 | 88.1 | 84.9 | 0.0046 | ______ | ______ |
1980 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0044 | ______ | ______ |
1981 | 110.4 | 105.0 | 0.004445 | ______ | ______ |
1982 | 117.2 | 107.8 | 0.0040 | ______ | ______ |
1983 | 120.9 | 109.9 | 0.0042 | ______ | ______ |
1984 | 126.1 | 112.3 | 0.0042 | ||
1985 | 130.6 | 114.6 | 0.0042 | ______ | ______ |
1986 | 133.1 | 115.3 | 0.0059 | ______ | ______ |
1987 | 137.9 | 115.4 | 0.0069 | ______ | ______ |
假设美元利率和英镑利率均为每年5%。当前的美元/英镑均衡汇率与预期美元/英镑汇率之间有什么联系?假设预期美元/英镑汇率为每英镑1.52美元并保持不变,英国的年利率升至10%。如果美国的利率仍然保持不变,那么,新的均衡汇率是多少?
Suppose the dollar interest rate and the pound sterling interest rate are the same,5 percent per year.What is the relation between the current equilibrium $/£ exchange rate and its expected future level? Suppose the expected future $/£ exchange rate,$1.52 per pound,remains constant as Britain's interest rate rises to 10 percent per year.If the U.S. interest rate also remains constant,what is the new equilibrium $/£ exchange rate?
假设美国的存款利率是每年5%,而德国的存款利率是每年3%。美元的即期汇率是E$/€=1.25。假设你是一个拥有100万美元的投资者。
假设美国的存款利率是每年5%,而德国的存款利率是每年3%。美元的即期汇率是E$/?=1.25。假设你是一个拥有100万美元的投资者。
思考美元和欧元之间的汇率。假设美国和欧洲的流动性函数L(i)是相同的。起初美国和欧洲都处于长期均衡状态。美国的货币供给量为1000美元,而美国的实际国内生产总值为10000单位。美国的价格水平在这个长期均衡条件中是每单位产出1美元。欧洲的货币供给量为500欧元,而欧洲的实际国内生产总值为5000单位。在T时刻,美国永久性地将它的货币供给量提高到1500美元。在T时刻,美国的利率从5%下降到2%。
名义利率与实际通货膨胀率之间的差距常被称为滞后实际利率(相对于超前实际利率或预期实际利率而言)。图15-1显示了1976~1980年,瑞士的滞后实际利率通常为正,而美国却一般为负。假设在这些年中,两国的居民均可对通货膨胀进行准确预期,那么你认为在1976~1980年国际汇率市场中美元对瑞士法郎的比价如何?1981~1982年呢?你可用历史数据来验证你的假设(可参阅国际货币基金组织《国际金融统计资料》(InternationalFit~twial Statistics))。
The difference between the nominal interest rate and the actual inflation rate is often called the ex post real interest rate(as opposed to the ex ante,or expected real interest rate).Figure 15-1 shows that between 1976 and 1980,the ex post real interest rate in Switzerland was usually positive while that in the United States was usually negative.Assume that people were able to forecast inflation accurately in both countries during these years.What would you guess about the dollar's strength against the Swiss franc in the foreign exchange market between 1976 and 1980? What do you think happened to the dollar/Swiss franc exchange rate in 1981-1982? Check your answer by looking up the history of the exchange rate.(See,for example.the International Monetary Fund's publication,International Financial Statistics.)
A.13%
B.12.75%
C.15 %
D.10.26%