根据实际经济周期理论，持久的与暂时的技术冲击对经济应该有完全不同的影响。用鲁宾逊·克鲁索的故事来比较暂

时冲击(预期好天气只持续几天)与持久冲击(气候模式的有利变动)的影响。哪一种冲击对克鲁索的工作努力程度影响更大？对GDP影响更大？这些冲击中有哪一种会减少工作努力程度吗？

According to real business cycle theory, permanent and transitory shocks to technology should have very different effects on the economy. Use the parable of Robinson Crusoe to compare the effects of a transitory shock (good weather expected to last only a few days) and a permanent shock (a beneficial change in weather patterns). Which shock would have a greater effect on Crusoe's work effort？ On GDP？ Is it possible that one of these shocks might reduce work effort？